Comparing Forecast Models Side by Side

When the models disagree, the disagreement is the story. Forecast model comparison puts every model available at your station into one grid, hour by hour, so you can see where they line up and where they part company — and make your own call.

This is a Premium feature. See Premium Features.

Opening the comparison

Reading the grid

Each row is a model. Each column is an hour. Scroll sideways to move through time and down to move through the models; the model names and the hours stay pinned in place as you scroll.

The forecast is shown for four things, and you can have all of them or only the ones you care about:

• Rain
• Temperature
• Weather condition
• Wind

Values use the units you chose in your settings — see Setting Your Unit Preferences.

Choosing which metrics to show

Making sense of what you see

A few patterns are worth knowing:

• Everyone agrees. High confidence. Take the forecast at face value.
• They agree on the day but not the hour. Common with showers and fronts. The event is likely; the timing is not settled. Re-check closer to the day.
• One model is the odd one out. Look at its grid size before dismissing it. A 1.3 km regional model can legitimately see a shower over your valley that a 25 km global model averages away — a disagreement about detail, not about the weather.
• They scatter completely. Genuine uncertainty. This is useful to know, and it is exactly what a single forecast hides from you.

Remember that the further ahead you look, the more the models diverge — that is the nature of the atmosphere, not a fault in any one of them. See Understanding Forecast Models for what makes the models different in the first place.

Once you have a favourite

If comparing repeatedly points you at the same model, make it your default rather than checking each time: add it to your Preferred models, or set it for one station from the forecast chip. Choosing Which Forecast Models You Get walks through both.

Common questions

Why are fewer models listed than I expected? Only models that reach your station can be compared. Regional models cover a limited area, so a station outside their domain simply has fewer to compare. This is normal and depends on where you are.

Can I compare two stations? Not here — this compares models at one station. To compare two stations against each other, use the station comparison report in Analysis.

Related articles

• Understanding Forecast Models — what each model is, and what its specifications mean
• Choosing Which Forecast Models You Get — turn a comparison into a lasting choice
• Weather Forecasts in SmartMixin — where forecasts appear and how to read them

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